Cardinal Marc Ouellet – a potential successor to the Pope and a noted conservative from Canada – may now be ruled out of the papal succession owing to his having been accused of sexual misconduct as part of a class-action lawsuit. Pope Francis has since decided there is insufficient evidence to open an investigation. While we do not know what will come of this, the College of Cardinals may now see a cloud hanging over Ouellet’s head. This may give a boost for a continuity candidate to Francis, notably Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, but also have a rally-around effect for a generally-popular traditionalist, such as Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő.
The Pope’s decision not to open an investigation is likely to play into the hands of critics who, in the past, have accused him of insufficient firmness when dealing with other cases. But the Pope’s supporters could also be emboldened – after all, Ouellet is a conservative who would represent change, not continuity, if he succeeded the Pontiff. Of course, the allegation does not rule the Canadian out of the running in the event of a potential resignation, but the College of Cardinals may still feel uneasy.
The fact a conservative could be ruled out may embolden progressives, in particular, and give a boost for a continuity candidate, chief among them Filipino Cardinal Tagle but also Italian Cardinal Matteo Zuppi. This time, Tagle may have the edge. He represents the changing face of the Church, plus the College may be wary of backing an Italian, perhaps thinking he would be less able to reach a global Catholic audience (there has not been an Italian pope since 1978). Tagle – dubbed the “Asian Francis” – was appointed to lead the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples in 2019 and has criticised previously “harsh words” against LGBT Catholics. Zuppi has also endorsed a “new pastoral attitude” for LGBT Catholics.
Zuppi does have the advantage of compromise – appealing to both liberals and conservatives – but from the liberal wing. Also able to appeal to both liberals and conservatives – but from the conservative wing – is the Hungarian Cardinal Erdő, a popular figure whose selection would be a shot in the arm to conservatives in central and eastern Europe, not least Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán. Erdő – who shows respect to those who prefer the Latin Mass – may also benefit from a rally-around effect among traditionalists created by Ouellet’s potential absence from the race. Meanwhile, Tagle may well have a path cleared if it comes to pass that another continuity candidate and Francis ally, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, has undermined his chances through his close association with the Vatican-China deal.
Other candidates could include the Dutch conservative, Cardinal Wim Eijk, and compromise candidate, Cardinal Mario Grech from Malta. Meanwhile, there is the outside chance of an African pontiff given that Cardinal Peter Turkson and Cardinal Robert Sarah represent – like Tagle – the changing face of the Church, while appealing to the conservative wing of the College. However, there is still some suspicion that some cardinals could not support an African pope, which would impede the chances of Sarah and Turkson.
Right now, this would appear to put Erdő in front on the conservative wing, while Tagle – representing a new face of the Church – seems likely to be the front-runner among progressives. Tagle also gets a boost given that the make-up of the College of Cardinals very much reflects the Pope’s tastes. Zuppi – while popular – may be seen as unable to easily reach a global audience, while fellow Italian – Parolin – may have blotted his copybook over China. If symbolism matters, then Erdő vs. Tagle would be a contest of ideas, perception and identity. Ouellet may still be a papabile, but whether or not he is ruled out, Erdő and Tagle still look like the front-runners if and when Pope Francis resigns.
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