German Cardinal Walter Brandmüller – a conservative who has criticised the Synodal Path – has asked that the right to vote in a conclave be limited to those residing in Rome, since there are too many cardinals who come from faraway places who lack experience with the Roman Curia, and do not know one another, making them more susceptible to influence, as first reported by Elise Ann Allen for Crux. While many cardinals from around the world do end up residing in Rome, there is no doubt the College of Cardinals is becoming a less European affair overall, with eight of the new cardinals from Europe, six from Asia, four from Central and Latin America, two from Africa, and just one from North America.
Of the newly appointed or currently eligible voting cardinals which Pope Francis has named, 34 per cent are from Europe, 22 per cent from the Asia-Pacific, 20 per cent from Latin America and the Caribbean, 13 per cent from sub-Saharan Africa, 8 per cent from North America, and 2 per cent from North Africa and the Middle East. Brandmüller’s comments will also resonate with traditionalists who believe Pope Francis is determined to ensure his successor is very much a man after his own heart. This perhaps puts Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle or Cardinal Matteo Zuppi in pole position as continuity candidates, although Cardinal Péter Erdő remains a leading contender.
On August 27, cardinals from around the world gathered at the Vatican for a surprisingly-timed consistory where 20 prelates joined the College of Cardinals, with sixteen under 80 years old and thus qualified to select the next pontiff. This was the eighth time Francis has named cardinals, with 83 of the 132 cardinal electors now chosen by him. This was however the first time many cardinals got to meet in person, offering the chance to sound out would-be successors to Francis as rumours continue about an imminent papal resignation, something the Pope has done little to put to bed.
On August 28, for instance, the Pope praised the humility of past popes who have resigned during a visit to L’Aquila, the burial place of Celestine V, who resigned in 1294. Benedict XVI visited L’Aquila four years before stepping down and many Vatican-watchers interpreted news of the recent visit as a signal of Francis’s own intent. On August 31, meanwhile, Francis ended two days of closed-door meetings with the cardinals, with discussions about how the Church’s governance could be more inclusive, with attention given to a new Apostolic constitution which allows lay people to head Vatican offices.
Cardinal Brandmüller’s words point to concerns among conservatives, even though the international make-up of the College may make it harder to accurately forecast which way the cardinals will vote. Indeed, clergy from the Global South often represent countries where conservative values remain far more entrenched (this includes Cardinal Tagle, by the way). One need only look at African clerics, Cardinal Peter Turkson and Cardinal Robert Sarah. Turkson is a staunch conservative who has defended anti-gay legislation, while Sarah is a noted traditionalist with a pre-Vatican II outlook.
The resignation of his predecessor may have paved the way for the Pope to resign, however Francis may wait until Benedict passes away to make the decision. Meanwhile, it is likely that Francis will wait until the completion of his Synod on Synodality next year. But after 2023 – and assuming the Pontiff’s health does not improve – the chances of a resignation may only increase. The consistory and closed-door meetings – and future meetings – will be the main opportunities for cardinals to sound out a successor, with Erdő, Tagle and Zuppi looking like the front-runners. Cardinal Brandmüller’s warning hints at unease about recent appointments, but the international make-up of the cardinals means forecasting voting intentions has never been harder.
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