Stock markets are notoriously fickle, forever expanding or contracting on the basis of whatever new wind happens to blow. Let a coup occur in Bahrain, and the Dow may drop 100 points over fears about oil production; should the US land a new rover on Mars, the NASDAQ may soar amid rising confidence in American technological prowess.
Perceived fortunes of papal candidates are a bit like the markets, actually, in that they also often wax and wane on the basis of whatever’s happening right now. Should a particular cardinal turn in a bravura performance navigating a controversy, his odds will be seen to rise; if another cardinal is associated with a gaffe or scandal, his chances will be regarded as having dimmed.
Of course, there’s one towering difference: variations in stock prices have cash value in the here and now, while the ups and downs of papabili, contenders for the Throne of Peter, really matter only once, which is whenever the time finally comes for a conclave.
That aside, it’s still an interesting thought exercise to ponder how three recent news events may have affected the standing of perceived candidates. Those headlines include controversies over Fiducia Supplicans, the Vatican document approving blessings of people in same-sex relationships; Pope Francis’s comments regarding Ukraine waving a white flag in its conflict with Russia; and the Pope’s new autobiography Life: My Story Through History, in which he once again rejects suggestions that he might be on the verge of resignation.
The clearest example of shifting fortunes probably pivots on Fiducia, because it produced a clear loser and winner.
To begin with the loser, it’s obviously Argentine Cardinal Víctor Manuel Fernández, prefect of the Vatican’s Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, and the primary author of Fiducia. As the tempest over the document gathered force, it emerged that a quarter-century before, as a young priest, he’d published a book titled Mystical Passion which, among other risqué themes, featured an imaginary erotic encounter with Christ on the shores of Galilee, and also sketched a spirituality of the orgasm.
Granted, Fernández is not the only prominent Catholic cleric of recent memory to write on orgasms – St John Paul II did so too, in his 1960 book Love and Responsibility. Granted, too, Fernández basically disavowed Mystical Passion, saying he wouldn’t write it today.
Nonetheless, taken in tandem with earlier revelations about another book he’d written in 1995 on the art of kissing, concerns mounted that Fernández could be seen as having a dubious fascination with sex – and that’s perhaps the most charitable spin one could put on things. It’s not exactly the profile of a future pope, especially one who’ll have to continue to lead recovery from the clerical abuse scandals.
On the other hand, Fiducia also introduced a strong new contender in the person of 64-year-old Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo of the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the president of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar. A member of the Capuchins, Ambongo achieved something many analysts would have thought metaphysically impossible, which was impressing both critics and fans of Pope Francis in the way he handled the controversy.
Ambongo led the African bishops in unanimously proclaiming Fiducia a dead letter on their continent, thereby earning credit as a paladin of orthodoxy. Yet he did so only with the Pope’s explicit blessing, gained during an emergency trip to Rome, and he worked out the details of the African statement in collaboration with Fernández at the Pope’s request – thus impressing supporters of the pontiff with his fealty.
Today, odds-makers setting betting lines for the next conclave might do well to consider Ambongo for their shortlists.
As for Ukraine, Francis triggered what can only be described as a diplomatic crisis by saying in a recent interview with Swiss broadcaster RSI that Ukraine should have the courage to raise a white flag in its war with Russia – though he appeared to have in mind a negotiated peace, not necessarily outright surrender – and also implied that Ukraine has been “defeated”.
Disagreement and protest immediately came not simply from Ukrainian officials, but from representatives of NATO, the EU and various heads of state, including US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. That’s on top of blowback from the Pope’s own flock, including Major Archbishop Sviatoslav Shevchuk of the Greek Catholic Church in Ukraine, who responded that “Ukraine is wounded, but not conquered! Ukraine is exhausted, but it stands and will stand!”
To the extent that papal prospects have been damaged by the affair, the impact is probably most acute for Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, president of the powerful Italian bishops’ conference and Francis’s hand-picked envoy to Ukraine. It’s not that Zuppi was personally responsible for the Pope’s comments, but he’s nevertheless tightly identified with Francis’s line on Ukraine, meaning he has to carry the weight for both its perceived successes and failures.
Conversely, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State – traditionally the Pope’s top diplomat, but who’s been to some extent sidelined on Ukraine by the advent of Zuppi – may have boosted his stock slightly by being seen to come to the Pope’s rescue.
On March 12, Parolin gave an interview to the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera in which he echoed the Pope’s call for a ceasefire, but added that Russia should be the first party to lay down its arms, calling Moscow the “aggressor” and the war itself “unjust”. That seemed to calm the waters, short-circuiting what had been a mounting cycle of protest and recrimination.
In terms of papal succession, the argument for Parolin all along has been that he would deliver the substance of Francis’s papacy but not its mercurial, shoot-from-the-hip style, and the Ukraine kerfuffle may have reminded some of his fellow cardinals of that case.
Finally, Francis’s new autobiography is interesting vis-à-vis the next conclave mostly for what it suggests about timing – to wit, barring an unforeseen medical catastrophe, Francis isn’t planning to make way for a succession any time soon.
As he has on other occasions, Francis told Italian journalist Fabio Marchese Ragona that he has no plans to resign, and he believes the papal ministry normally should be ad vitam, meaning for life. He also spoke of tasks he still wants to complete, including the second Synod of Bishops on Synodality in October and next year’s Great Jubilee, which he said “will inspire a great surge in faith”.
“Thanks be to God, I enjoy good health, and, as I have said, there are many projects to bring to fruition, God willing,” the pontiff said.
Naturally, how much longer Francis may reign is not entirely up to him. But assuming he gets his wish and remains in power through the jubilee, whose prospects might that hurt?
Most obviously, it would be the 24 cardinals who will turn 80 between now and January 6, 2026, when the jubilee formally ends. That crop includes a handful of figures presently considered at least plausible papal candidates, such as Cardinals Marc Ouellet of Canada, Sean O’Malley of the US, Christoph Schönborn of Austria and Robert Sarah of Guinea.
While it’s theoretically possible a conclave could elect an over-80 cardinal who isn’t physically present in the Sistine Chapel, there are all kinds of reasons why it’s probably a longshot.
In sum, here we have at least six cardinals whose odds of wearing white, at least arguably, have either ebbed or flowed on the back of recent developments. If you don’t like the results, have no fear – because if there’s one commodity that will never be in short supply at the Vatican, it’s new twists and turns which will change the picture again.
This article originally appeared in the April 2024 issue of the Catholic Herald. To subscribe to our award-winning, thought-provoking magazine and have independent and high-calibre counter-cultural Catholic journalism delivered to your door anywhere in the world click here.
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