My sources in Westminster say that it was the chance to be elected for a “full five more years” that was the deciding factor for calling the election, along with there being a “window” for a summer election before the European Union agrees its negotiating position and the German elections later this year.
Add Theresa May’s runaway lead in the opinion polls (some putting her at 50 per cent), and a hopeless and divided Labour opposition, and you have as close to a winning hand as any PM could ever hope for. Oh, and expect the Conservative manifesto to include a specific election mandate not to hold another referendum (any time soon) on Scottish independence.
But there are some more expedient reasons for the election that will come as no surprise to seasoned Westminster owls. May, a vicar’s daughter who has risen through the political ranks by her own skill and character, rather than being anointed by some Boden-wearing political clique, wants her own moral mandate.
It is completely right for her to want this in order to build a country in her own image, with “equal opportunity” for all, based on hard work and merit – and not just for the “privileged few”, as she has said. This was, of course, a barely veiled reference to the “chumocracy” of David Cameron and his Notting Hill gang who turned political entitlement into a social art form. May is right to throw the cashmere and Cornwall brigade into the tumble dryer and forge a new party image that is not a “chillaxed” extension of the Bullingdon Club. Few in Westminster were sorry to see George Osborne step down as MP for Tatton.
But with so many other MPs standing down, and Labour MPs deserting the sinking ship, there are increased rumblings from the grassroots of the Conservative Party that May’s political generals in Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ, formerly known as Central Office) are not being entirely consistent, or transparent, in the selection of Tory candidates for June 8.
While May is determined to have an egalitarian and meritocratic ambition for the new post-Brexit Britain she wants, some Tory constituency associations have been complaining that Central Office has been sending them shortlists of candidates (“Westminster cronies”, according to the Telegraph) whom they have never heard of and are not known locally.
The press have reported grassroots “rebellions” both in major “target” gain seats like Walsall North, and in seats such as Hornchurch and Upminster, where Cameron’s former special adviser Shaun Bailey and Chris Grayling’s policy adviser Simon Jones were shortlisted by CCHQ. Yet the local Conservative association chose Julia Dockerill, a Conservative councillor in Tower Hamlets who was born and raised in Essex.
I sincerely hope that the expected Conservative landslide doesn’t result in the extinction of the traditional local MP who lives in (or close) to his constituency and genuinely wants to represent all his constituents’ interests. This would be a great loss to Westminster. Since the expenses scandal, many MPs have been forced to sell their “second” constituency homes because of new regulations on mortgages and allowances. Many MPs will attend the occasional surgery, but that is about it. It does not help that they have to travel second class, often on a Friday and don’t even get a train seat.
Yet, to be frank, as somebody who has fought a general election and seen the highly uneven mix and quality of “local” candidates (often local councillors), I can see why CCHQ does not allow constituencies to draw up their own shortlists. Most have no experience of Westminster, or being doorstepped by a tabloid, let alone being grilled under the hot lights of the Newsnight studio. I don’t have a problem with the idea of CCHQ deciding the shortlists and local associations making the final choice. This is politics, after all – the business of government – not political philanthropy. The Conservative Party has always been about getting into power and staying there by any means necessary.
If that means political parties – not just the Tories – having a secret A-list of politically safe and loyal candidates (likely to be ambitious careerists who will follow the party whip), then who can blame the central party machines for being ruthless in wishing to recruit the best political and party talent through a system that may not seem entirely fair to all – especially if you were an Old Etonian (which I, thankfully, am not).
In May 2015, not a single “new Etonian” stood in a Tory-held constituency, thanks to a darkly ironic fatwa on white upper-class candidates by Cameron. As the Spectator put it: “If you’re a white, middle- or upper-class man, you’re unlikely to have landed a safe seat.”
MPs and ministers should be selected on quality, not politically correct female quotas, cronyism, or because of skin colour (in 2015, 14 per cent of Tory candidates were black or from ethnic minorities). Politics, like life, is rarely fair. But, as always, it is about perception. If May truly wants to create an equal and fair society, she needs to extend this welcome spirit of egalitarianism to those within her own party tent.
William Cash is editor-in-chief of Spear’s
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