Polly Toynbee has long experience in analysing the political scene, especially the left-hand side of it, and so when she examines what is currently happening in the Labour Party, we really ought to pay attention.
In her latest article Polly looks beyond what she sees as the certain Corbyn victory (for what it’s worth, I think she is right about that) to what comes next, that is the election in 2020, and before that, the European referendum.
She thinks, based on careful reading of the evidence, that Labour is doomed to fail in 2020 with Corbyn as leader. Given that Mr Corbyn is already in his late sixties, he may well have retired by then, but who knows?
But what about the European referendum which is supposed to take place before 2018? Is Mr Corbyn a dedicated Europhile? It seems not – which raises the prospect of a Out campaign in the referendum that is not the exclusive preserve of the Right.
There is a tendency in Labour, at grass-roots level, that is strongly anti-EU, though you tend not to hear very much about it: the last leading Labour figure that I can think of who championed an exit from the EU was Peter Shore.
However, it is worth remembering that the respected and popular MP Kate Hoey is a eurosceptic, and the German-born Labour MP Gisela Stuart is also a less than fervent supporter of the EU. There may be others. The emergence of Mr Corbyn could just serve to galvanise the sleeping giant of socialist euroscepticism. One thing is certain: the emergence of a broad-based coalition again the EU will make the Out campaign that more credible.
At this point let me lay my cards on the table. I will be voting for the United Kingdom to stay in. I will not be doing this because I am enamoured of the EU as presently constituted. I think it is in serious need of reform, and I am puzzled that an institution whose origins date only to the post-War period should, given its brief history, be so desperately out of touch. Usually it is only ancient institutions that need reforming.
Moreover, I think that Britain, being an island, is better off out; we are not at the crossroads of Europe like Luxembourg, a country for whom European Union makes perfect sense. Our geography and culture place us at the edge of Europe, looking outwards.
So why on earth vote to stay in? The answer is because I am a Catholic and, as such, an internationalist. The single greatest threat to world peace is nationalism. Serb nationalism and Russian nationalism between them have given us a series of wars in in Europe in the last two decades.
Coupled with this is the threat of religious sectarianism, with which, Catholicism, properly understood, must always find itself at variance. The EU, defective as it is, does represent an attempt to overcome nationalism. The idea of Germany invading Poland would nowadays seem unthinkable.
A strong EU – and without Britain, the EU would be weaker – is a guarantee of safety to its more vulnerable members such as Poland and Lithuania. British readers hardly need reminding that these were two countries that we failed back in 1939, and we must never do that again. The European ideal leaves me a little cold, in its present incarnation, especially given the follies of the EU – I have not forgotten the Rocco Buttiglione affair. But for the sake of the new democracies of the East, we should vote to stay in.
As a socialist, Mr Corbyn is presumably an internationalist, so perhaps Polly Toynbee’s fears will prove unfounded. But as for us Catholics, we need to brush up on our internationalist credentials, and resist any nationalist temptations.
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